Thunderstorms & St Patrick's Day Snow

Well here we are again looking at another intense winter storm for the 2013-2014 season. It seems we've gone from the "Parade of Storms" of January/February to "the Winter that Won't Quit" across America. Many of you have gotten Cabin Fever by now from hibernating indoors from the slew of record-breaking weather events across many parts of eastern USA. This next storm will have the 2 major aspects of severe convective and winter weather as it evolves from Texas to the mid-Atlantic over the next 48 hrs Let's begin in the deep Southwest as the Low begins to pull out of the southern Rockies and influence the Lone Star state of Texas. The dominant key factors of this event will be a strong cold Canadian High forcing cold air southwards and a low pressure system riding along it's draped trough. Gulf moisture will surge north from central Texas to Florida over the next 36 hrs as this Low approaches. A typically strong jet stream combined with the rotational aspects of the Low will create just enough helicity to develop a low/minor severe weather. I think there will be just enough severe weather ingredients to develop a  low-end severe event with hail, wind damage, lightning, downpours, and maybe an isolated tornado Saturday in the central through eastern Texas regions.

Texas Louisiana ThunderstormsThunderstorm Threat Saturday Afternoon into Saturday night. From Accuweather..com

The greatest concern seems to be from around the Dallas area eastwards. Overnight this threat develops into the TX/ARK/OKL/LA corners region. There is a good chance for a decent lightning show overnight in this region. 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their SLIGHT RISK concepts for this region as noted here:

Saturday Thunderstorm Outlook Storm Prediction Center

This storm system is expected to slide along the entire Gulf states areas throughout this weekend. The risk of severe weather will be in the TX/OKL/LA regions on Saturday, LA to FLA Panhandle Sunday, and diminishing in intensity by Monday in the northern or central Fla. regions. By Saturday evening and overnight a pretty strong squall line may develop in eastern TX. Many of you lightning addicts like myself should have a decent lightning show for this event.

SPC Tornado threat are for Saturday into Saturday night.

SPC Tornado threat are for Saturday into Saturday night.

Meanwhile, during the beginning of this storm in the Southwest, all eyes in the northern Mid-Atlantic will be watching this system closely and bracing for their next SNOW storm. This Winter has been absolutely relentless to the eastern 1/2 of the nation and even though it is already meteorological Spring, and Spring equinox next weekend, the Winter aspects will be returning to central and eastern USA again from this storm. A wide range of snow and mixed precipitation will band across central USA on the northern fringes of this system. Some places such as the Memphis general region, and the southern Appalachians are concerned with icing events again.

 

Rain, snow & ice for portions of the US Sunday into Monday.

This Winter has had an abnormally consistent pattern that has ushered in record-breaking cold and snow events across much of eastern USA. In this wknd's storm, a strong Canadian High combined with a massive Low in the extreme eastern Canadian sections of North America, will once again bring this northern cold air down into th eastern 1/2 of USA. The following Canadian forecast model shows this set-up clearly and will greatly influence the snow aspect of this system coming for overnight Sunday in the upper mid-Atlantic.

 Snow accumulation forecasts for the North East US

 Snow accumulation forecasts for the North East US

The above forecast map shows just about how far south the influences of this set-up will suppress the snowstorm into the upper mid-Atlantic, instead of a Northeast storm. Usually this is somewhat difficult to attain in mid-March...but not this year!

So in combining all these aspects and projections, we conclude with a snow storm that will slide through the DELMARVA regions with a decent snow for the WV area, and depending on the timing of the snow, a decent snow should fall across WV, northern VA, MD, DE, and southern NJ.....sparing the Great Northeast.

Winter Weather for portions of the NE from Accuweather.com

 Winter Weather for portions of the NE from Accuweather.com

These previously outlined regions in the east will see their snow events mainly overnight Sunday and on into Monday. The bulk of any kind of accumulations will be before noon with the inclinations of a Mid-March Sun angle and moderate temps resisting maximized snow totals. Confidence of a 3-6" and maybe slightly more in the WV region is a good bet right through the DC, Philly, and surrounding areas.....

Snow on St Patrick's Day

Checking the calendar once again, brings us to SPRING next weekend, as this St. Patrick's Day weekend approaches. Many of you will be enjoying a green beer for the day/night and celebrating the hopeful end of this relentless and historic Winter season. Prepare now in the regions I have outlined here in the ways accordingly. This isn't a high intensity storm system, but it is enough to cause a  nuisance in your weekend plans. Unfortunately, in the Northeast, although you are experiencing decent temps today, the rest of this upcoming week will once again be generally negative anomalies (colder than average).